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OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a prognostic index for mortality in community‐living, frail elderly people.

DESIGN: Cohort study of Program of All‐Inclusive Care for the Elderly (PACE) participants enrolled between 1988 and 1996.

SETTING: Eleven PACE sites, a community‐based long‐term care program that cares for frail, chronically ill elderly people who meet criteria for nursing home placement.

PARTICIPANTS: Three thousand eight hundred ninety‐nine PACE enrollees. The index was developed in 2,232 participants and validated in 1,667.

MEASUREMENTS: Time to death was predicted using risk factors obtained from a geriatric assessment performed by the PACE interdisciplinary team at the time of enrollment. Risk factors included demographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, and functional status.

RESULTS: The development cohort had a mean age of 79 (68% female, 40% white). The …