作者
Dvir Aran
发表日期
2021/2/11
期刊
MedRxiv
页码范围
2021.02. 05.21251139
出版商
Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press
简介
The vaccination roll-out of the COVID-19 vaccines in Israel has been highly successful. By February 9th, approximately 39% of the population has already been administered at least one dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine. Efforts to estimate the true real-world effectiveness of the vaccine have been hampered by disease dynamics and social-economic discrepancies. Here, using counts of positive and hospitalized cases of vaccinated individuals, we conduct a sensitive analysis of the vaccine effectiveness. Under an assumption of no effectiveness on the first two weeks after the 1st dose, the analysis shows effectiveness of 72% in reducing SARS-CoV-2 positive cases (symptomatic and asymptomatic), 83% reduction of COVID-19 hospitalizations and 86% reduction in severe cases in 60 years and older individuals the second week after the 2nd dose. On weeks 3-4 after the 2nd dose, we observe vaccine effectiveness of 95%+, however cases may still accumulate. Our analysis suggests that high effectiveness of the vaccine only starts after three weeks, which coincides with the administration of the 2nd dose. As more granular data will be available, it will be possible to extract more exact estimates; however, the emerging evidence suggest that the vaccine is highly effective in reducing cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
引用总数
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