作者
Weiwei Hu, Guwei Zhang, Gang Zeng, Zhongxian Li
发表日期
2018/12/21
期刊
Atmosphere
卷号
10
期号
1
页码范围
1
出版商
MDPI
简介
Recently, NCAR (the National Center for Atmospheric Research) released the Community Earth System Model’s low-warming simulations, which provided long-term climate data for stabilization pathways at 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. Based on these data, six extreme low temperature indices—TXn (coldest day), TNn (coldest night), TX10p (cool days), TN10p (cool nights), CSDI (cold spell duration indicator), and DTR (diurnal temperature range)—were calculated to assess the changes in extreme low temperature over Northern China under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warmer future. The results indicate that compared to the preindustrial level, the whole of China will experience 0.32–0.46 °C higher minimum surface air temperature (SAT) warming than the global average, and the winter temperature increase in Northern China will be the most pronounced over the country. In almost all the regions of Northern China, especially Northeast and Northwest China, extreme low temperature events will occur with lower intensity, frequency, and duration. Compared with the present day, the intensity of low temperature events will decrease most in Northeast China, with TXn increasing by 1.9 °C/2.0 °C and TNn increasing by 2.0 °C/2.5 °C under 1.5 °C/2.0 °C global warming, respectively. The frequency of low temperature events will decrease relatively more in North China, with TX10p decreasing by 8 days/11 days and TN10p decreasing by 7 days/9 days under 1.5 °C/2.0 °C warming. CSDI will decrease most in Northwest China, with decreases of 7 days/10 days with 1.5 °C/2.0 °C warming. DTR will decrease in the Northwest and Northeast but …
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