作者
Duccio Fanelli, Francesco Piazza
发表日期
2020/5/1
期刊
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals
卷号
134
页码范围
109761
出版商
Pergamon
简介
In this note we analyze the temporal dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak in China, Italy and France in the time window 22/01− 15/03/2020. A first analysis of simple day-lag maps points to some universality in the epidemic spreading, suggesting that simple mean-field models can be meaningfully used to gather a quantitative picture of the epidemic spreading, and notably the height and time of the peak of confirmed infected individuals. The analysis of the same data within a simple susceptible-infected-recovered-deaths model indicates that the kinetic parameter that describes the rate of recovery seems to be the same, irrespective of the country, while the infection and death rates appear to be more variable. The model places the peak in Italy around March 21 st 2020, with a peak number of infected individuals of about 26000 (not including recovered and dead) and a number of deaths at the end of …
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