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Background  Medical interventions are often characterized by substantial scientific uncertainty regarding their benefits and harms. Physicians must communicate to their patients as part of the process of shared decision making, yet they may not always communicate scientific uncertainty for several reasons. One suggested by past research is individual differences in physicians’ tolerance of uncertainty. Relatedly, an unexplored explanation is physicians’ beliefs about their patients’ tolerance of uncertainty.

Design  To test this possibility, we surveyed a sample of primary care physicians (N = 1500) and examined the association between their attitudes about communicating and managing scientific uncertainty and their perceptions of negative reactions to uncertainty by their patients. Physician perceptions were measured by their propensity towards pessimistic appraisals of risk information and avoidance of …