作者
CovidSurg Collaborative, Dmitri Nepogodiev, Omar M Omar, James C Glasbey, Elizabeth Li, Joana FF Simoes, Tom EF Abbott, Adesoji O Ademuyiwa, Bruce M Biccard, Daoud Chaudhry, Giana H Davidson, Salomone Di Saverio, Gaetano Gallo, Dhruv Ghosh, Ewen M Harrison, Peter J Hutchinson, Sivesh K Kamarajah, Deborah S Keller, Ismail Lawani, Ana Minaya‐Bravo, Rachel Moore, Dion G Morton, Faustin Ntirenganya, Francesco Pata, Rupert M Pearse, Antonio Ramos‐De la Medina, Stephen Tabiri, Mary L Venn, Aneel Bhangu Omar M Omar, Dmitri Nepogodiev, Aneel Bhangu, Ewen M Harrison, Kwabena Siaw‐Acheampong, Michel Adamina, Arnav Agarwal, Ehab Alameer, Derek Alderson, Felix Alakaloko, Osaid Alser, Alexis P Arnaud, Knut Magne Augestad, Brittany K Bankhead‐Kendall, Emma Barlow, Ruth A Benson, Ruth Blanco‐Colino, Amanpreet Brar, Ana Minaya‐Bravo, Kerry A Breen, Igor Lima Buarque, Edward J Caruana, Sohini Chakrabortee, Daniel Cox, Miguel F Cunha, Brett E Dawson, Anant Desai, Thomas D Drake, John G Edwards, Muhammed Elhadi, Jonathan P Evans, Shebani Farik, Marco Fiore, J Edward Fitzgerald, Samuel Ford, Dhruv Ghosh, Gustavo Mendonça Ataíde Gomes, Ewen A Griffiths, Rohan R Gujjuri, Constantine Halkias, Emily Heritage, Arda Isik, Michael D Jenkinson, Conor S Jones, Chetan Khatri, James M Keatley, Angelos Kolias, Samuel Lawday, Hans Lederhuber, Sezai Leventoglu, Markus W Löffler, Janet Martin, Hassan N Mashbari, Dennis Mazingi, Siobhan C Mckay, Symeon Metallidis, Helen M Mohan, David Moszkowicz, Susan Moug, Joshua S Ng‐Kamstra, Milagros Niquen, Oumaima Outani, Gianluca Pellino, Thomas D Pinkney, Peter Pockney, Dejan Radenkovic, Keith Roberts, April C Roslani, Irene Santos, Andrew Schache, Andreas A Schnitzbauer, Grant D Stewart, Richard Shaw, Sebastian Shu, Kjetil Soreide, Antonino Spinelli, Sudha Sundar, Abhinav Tiwari, Philip Townend, Isobel M Trout, Georgios Tsoulfas, Gabrielle H van Ramshorst, Raghavan Vidya, Dale Vimalachandran, Oliver Warren, Richard JW Wilkin, Naomi Wright, Eric Hoste, Luc Huyghens, Rita Jacobs, Godelieve Opdenacker, Jan Poelaert, Dirk Rijckaert, Koen De Decker, Luc Foubert, Nikolaas De Neve, Patrick Biston, Michael Piagnerelli, Vincent Collin, Nadia den Blauwen, Charlotte Clauwaert, Luc De Crop, Eric Hoste, An Verbeke, Pieter Derumeaux, Christophe Gardin, Sebastiaan Kindt, Sofie Louage, Bruno Verhamme, Patrick Druwé, Ingrid Lahaye, Francis Rosseel, Robert Rutsaert, Luc Vanlinthout, Marc De Kock, Patrice Forget, Pascal Georges, Irina Grosu, David Kahn, Fernande Lois, Mona Momeni, Audrey Pospiech Bernadette Yemnga
发表日期
2020/10
期刊
British journal of surgery
卷号
107
期号
11
页码范围
1440-1449
出版商
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
简介
Background
The COVID‐19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID‐19.
Methods
A global expert response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian β‐regression model was used to estimate 12‐week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case‐mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (surgery for cancer versus benign disease), were determined. This case mix was applied to country‐level surgical volumes. The 12‐week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate the total number of cancelled operations.
Results
The best estimate was that 28 404 603 operations would …
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CovidSurg Collaborative, D Nepogodiev, OM Omar… - British journal of surgery, 2020