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The room temperature pump–probe X-ray free electron laser (XFEL) measurements used for serial femtosecond crystallography provide remarkable information about the structures of the catalytic (S-state) intermediates of the oxygen-evolution reaction of photosystem II. However, mixed populations of these intermediates and moderate resolution limit the interpretation of the data from current experiments. The S3 XFEL structures show extra density near the OEC that may correspond to a water/hydroxide molecule. However, in the latest structure, this additional oxygen is 2.08 Å from the Oε2 of D1–E189, which is closer than the sum of the van der Waals radii of the two oxygens. Here, we use Boltzmann statistics and Monte Carlo sampling to provide a model for the S2-to-S3 state transition, allowing structural changes and the insertion of an additional water/hydroxide. Based on our model, water/hydroxide addition to …