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To quantify the consequences of asymptomatic hyperuricemia, this study examined rates for a first episode of gouty arthritis based on 30,147 human-years of prospective observation. A cohort of 2,046 initially healthy men in the Normative Aging Study was followed for 14.9 years with serial examinations and measurement of urate levels. With prior serum urate levels of 9 mg/dl or more, the annual incidence rate of gouty arthritis was 4.9 percent, compared with 0.5 percent for urate levels of 7.0 to 8.9 mg/dl and 0.1 percent for urate levels below 7.0 mg/dl. With urate levels of 9 mg/dl or higher, cumulative incidence of gouty arthritis reached 22 percent after five years. Incidence rates were three times higher for hypertensive patients than for normotensive patients (p <0.01). The strongest predictors of gout in a proportional hazards model were age, body mass index, hypertension, and cholesterol level, and alcohol intake …