作者
Rory GJ Fitzpatrick, Douglas J Parker, John H Marsham, David P Rowell, Lawrence S Jackson, Declan Finney, Chetan Deva, Simon Tucker, Rachael Stratton
发表日期
2020/11
期刊
Climatic Change
卷号
163
页码范围
267-296
出版商
Springer Netherlands
简介
Current-climate precipitation and temperature extremes have been identified by decision makers in West Africa as among the more impactful weather events causing lasting socioeconomic damage. In this article, we use a plausible future-climate scenario (RCP8.5) for the end of the twenty-first century to explore the relative commonness of such extremes under global warming. The analysis presented considers what a typical day in the future climate will feel like relative to current extrema. Across much of West Africa, we see that the typical future-climate day has maximum and minimum temperatures greater than 99.5% of currently experienced values. This finding exists for most months but is particularly pronounced during the Boreal spring and summer. The typical future precipitation event has a daily rainfall rate greater than 95% of current storms. These findings exist in both a future scenario model run with and …
引用总数
20212022202320244682