作者
Lawrence S Jackson, JA Crook, Andrew Jarvis, D Leedal, Andrew Ridgwell, Naomi Vaughan, Piers M Forster
发表日期
2015/2/28
期刊
Geophysical Research Letters
卷号
42
期号
4
页码范围
1223-1231
简介
In an assessment of how Arctic sea ice cover could be remediated in a warming world, we simulated the injection of SO2 into the Arctic stratosphere making annual adjustments to injection rates. We treated one climate model realization as a surrogate “real world” with imperfect “observations” and no rerunning or reference to control simulations. SO2 injection rates were proposed using a novel model predictive control regime which incorporated a second simpler climate model to forecast “optimal” decision pathways. Commencing the simulation in 2018, Arctic sea ice cover was remediated by 2043 and maintained until solar geoengineering was terminated. We found quantifying climate side effects problematic because internal climate variability hampered detection of regional climate changes beyond the Arctic. Nevertheless, through decision maker learning and the accumulation of at least 10 years time series …
引用总数
20152016201720182019202020212022202320241426655641
学术搜索中的文章
LS Jackson, JA Crook, A Jarvis, D Leedal, A Ridgwell… - Geophysical Research Letters, 2015