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—To assess the accuracy of lipid screening strategies to identify individuals at increased risk of coronary heart disease mortality.

—The 15% random sample of adults recruited into the Lipid Research Clinic Prevalence and Follow-up Studies, which included 3678 men and women aged 35 to 74 years. Total plasma cholesterol levels, lipoprotein fractions, and other coronary risk factors at study entry were compared with subsequent coronary heart disease mortality (mean follow-up, 12.2 years).

—The areas under receiver operating characteristic curves for blood lipids, lipid ratios, the screening guidelines proposed by the National Cholesterol Education Program, those of the Canadian Consensus Conference on Cholesterol, and a coronary risk model that used Framingham data.

—The current National Cholesterol Education Program guidelines (area under the …