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Despite the increased risk of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes associated with excess bodyweight, development of a clinically meaningful metric for health professionals remains a challenge. We estimated the years of life lost and the life-years lost from diabetes and cardiovascular disease associated with excess bodyweight.

We developed a disease-simulation model to estimate the annual risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and mortality for people with BMI of 25–<30 kg/m² (overweight), 30–<35 kg/m² (obese), or 35 kg/m² and higher (very obese), compared with an ideal BMI of 18·5–<25 kg/m². We used data from 3992 non-Hispanic white participants in the National Nutrition and Examination Survey (2003–10) for whom complete risk factor data and fasting glucose concentrations were available. After validation of the model projections, we estimated the years of life lost and …