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The actual impact of the pandemic on COVID-19 specific mortality is still unclear due to the variability in access to diagnostic tools. This study aimed to estimate the excess all-cause mortality in Iran until September 2021 based on the national death statistics.

The autoregressive integrated moving average was used to predict seasonal all-cause death in Iran (R-squared = 0.45). We observed a 38.8% (95% confidence interval (CI) 29.7%–40.1%) rise in the all-cause mortality from 22 June 2020 to 21 June 2021. The excess all-cause mortality per 100,000 population were 178.86 (95% CI 137.2–220.5, M:F ratio = 1.3) with 49.1% of these excess deaths due to COVID-19. Comparison of spring 2019 and spring 2021 revealed that the highest percent increase in mortality was among men aged 65–69 years old (77%) and women aged 60–64 years old (86.8%). Moreover, the excess mortality among …