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Early treatment for Crohn's disease (CD) with immunomodulators and/or anti‐TNF agents improves outcomes in comparison to a slower ‘step up’ algorithm. However, there remains a limited ability to identify those who would benefit most from early intensive therapy.

To develop a validated, individualised, web‐based tool for patients and clinicians to visualise individualised risks for developing Crohn's disease complications.

A well‐characterised cohort of adult patients with CD was analysed. Available data included: demographics; clinical characteristics; serologic immune responses; NOD2 status; time from diagnosis to complication; and medication exposure. Cox proportional analyses were performed to model the probability of developing a CD complication over time. The Cox model was validated externally in two independent CD cohorts. Using system dynamics analysis (SDA …