查看文章

Conditional ground‐motion models (CGMMs) for estimating Arias intensity (⁠ I A⁠) for earthquakes in subduction zones are developed. The estimate of I A is conditioned in these models on the estimated peak ground acceleration (PGA), the spectral acceleration at T= 1 s (SA1), time‐averaged shear‐wave velocity in the top 30 m (⁠ V S 30⁠), and magnitude (⁠ M w⁠). Random‐effects regressions are used to develop CGMMs for Japan, Taiwan, South America, and New Zealand. By combining the conditional models of I A with the ground‐motion models (GMMs) for PGA and SA1, the conditional models are converted to scenario‐based GMMs that can be used to estimate the median I A and its standard deviation directly for a given earthquake scenario and site conditions. The conditional scaling approach ensures the estimated I A values are consistent with a design spectrum that may correspond to above‐average …