作者
Eda Puntarić, Lato Pezo, Željka Zgorelec, Jerko Gunjača, Dajana Kučić Grgić, Neven Voća
发表日期
2022/8/16
期刊
Sustainability
卷号
14
期号
16
页码范围
10133
出版商
MDPI
简介
Given that global amounts of waste are growing rapidly, it is extremely important to determine what amount of waste will be generated in the near future. Accurate waste forecasting is also important for planning and designing a sustainable municipal solid waste (MSW) management system. For that reason, there is a need to build a model to predict the amount of MSW generated in the near future. Based on previous research, artificial neural networks (ANN) show better results in predicting waste generation compared to other mathematical models. In this research, an ANN model using the iterative algorithm Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS) for the prediction of MSW fractions, based on the socio-demographic characteristics, economic and industrial data obtained in Croatia and summarized data of the member states of EU (EU-27 from 2020), showed good predictive capabilities. The coefficient of determination during the training cycle for the output variables; household and similar waste (HHS), paper and cardboard waste (PCW), wood waste (WW), textile waste (TW), plastic waste (PW) and glass waste (GW) were 0.993; 0.997; 0.999; 0.997; 0.998; and 0.998, respectively, while reduced chi-square, mean bias error, root mean square error, mean percentage error, average absolute relative deviation and sum of squared errors were found low. In this paper, Yoon′s method of interpretation shows the relationships between socio-demographic data and the amount of generated waste. The results indicate that the lowest level of education shows a negative impact on observed waste-types calculations, with a relative impact between −9 …
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