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Soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) has the potential to improve sustainability of agricultural production systems. A higher focus on this crop is needed to re-launch its production in the EU. A better understanding of key determinants affecting soybean establishment represents a first step to facilitate its adoption in cropping systems. To this objective, we conducted laboratory and field experiments in order to better characterize seed germination and seedling growth in relation to temperatures, water content, and soil structure. We then used these data to parametrize the SIMPLE crop emergence model and to evaluate its prediction quality, by comparing observed field germination and emergence data with the predicted ones. Finally, we performed a simulation study over the 2020–2100 period, for three sowing dates, from mid-March to mid-April, in the northern climate of France to evaluate whether soybean will …