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Mosquito-borne diseases are expanding their range, and re-emerging in areas where they had subsided for decades. The extent to which climate change influences the transmission suitability and population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases across different altitudes and population densities has not been investigated. The aim of this study was to quantify the extent to which climate change will influence the length of the transmission season and estimate the population at risk of mosquito-borne diseases in the future, given different population densities across an altitudinal gradient.

Using a multi-model multi-scenario framework, we estimated changes in the length of the transmission season and global population at risk of malaria and dengue for different altitudes and population densities for the period 1951–99. We generated projections from six mosquito-borne disease models, driven by four …