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To determine the potential impact fraction of alcohol and tobacco consumption, high body mass index and low physical activity on colorectal cancer burden in Colombia for the period 2016–2050.

Based on age-specific and sex-specific data on colorectal cancer incidence, data from population-based surveys for the exposure data and population projections, the macrosimulation model Prevent V.3.01 was used to model expected colorectal cancer incidence for the period 2016–2050. Baseline models were those where exposure levels were not subject to change because of interventions. Two intervention scenarios were specified: one with elimination of exposure to the risk factor as of 2017 and a second one where over a 10-year period the current prevalence data gradually declined until they reach 90% of the 2016 levels.

Under the reference scenarios, a total number of 274 637 colorectal …