作者
Virginie Supervie, Meagan Barrett, James S Kahn, Godfrey Musuka, Themba Lebogang Moeti, Lesego Busang, Sally Blower
发表日期
2011/12/7
期刊
Scientific reports
卷号
1
期号
1
页码范围
185
出版商
Nature Publishing Group UK
简介
Clinical trials have recently demonstrated the effectiveness of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis (PrEP) in preventing HIV infection. Consequently, PrEP may soon be used for epidemic control. We model the dynamic interactions that will occur between treatment programs and potential PrEP interventions in resource-constrained countries. We determine the consequences for HIV transmission and drug resistance. We use response hypersurface modeling to predict the effect of PrEP on decreasing transmission as a function of effectiveness, adherence and coverage. We predict PrEP will increase need for second-line therapies (SLT) for treatment-naïve individuals, but could significantly decrease need for SLT for treatment-experienced individuals. If the rollout of PrEP is carefully planned it could increase the sustainability of treatment programs. If not, need for SLT could increase and the sustainability of treatment programs …
引用总数
20122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320245951010751036311