作者
John A Church, Jonathan M Gregory, Philippe Huybrechts, Michael Kuhn, Kurt Lambeck, Mai T Nhuan, Dahe Qin, Phil L Woodworth
发表日期
2001
图书
, in: JT Houghton, Y. Ding, DJ Griggs, M. Noguer, PJ Van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and CA Johnson (eds.): Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis: Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
页码范围
639-694
简介
This chapter assesses the current state of knowledge of the rate of change of global-averaged and regional sea-level in relation to climate change. We focus on the 20th and 21st centuries.However, because of the slow response to past conditions of the oceans and ice sheets and the consequent land movements, we consider changes in sea level prior to the historical record, andwe also look over a thousand years into the future.Past changes in sea levelFrom recent analyses, our conclusions are as follows:since the Last Glacial Maximum about 20 000 years ago, sea level has risen by over 120 m at locations far from present and former ice sheets, as a result of loss of mass from these ice sheets. There was a rapid rise between 15 000 and 6000 years ago at an average rate of 10 mm/yr.based on geological data, global average sea level may have risen at an average rate of 0.5 mm/yr over the last 6000 years and at an average rate of 0.1 to 0.2 mm/yr over the last 3000 years.vertical land movements are still occurring today as a result of these large transfers of mass from the ice sheets to the ocean.during the last 6000 years, global average sea-level variations on the time scales of a few hundred years and longer are likely to have been less than 0.3 to 0.5 m.based on tide gauge data, the rate of global average sea-level rise during the 20th century is in the range 1.0 to 2.0 mm/yr, with a central value of 1.5 mm/yr (as with other ranges of uncertainty, it is not implied that the central value is the best estimate).based on the few very long tide-gauge records, the average rate of sea-level rise has been larger during the 20th century than the 19th century …
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学术搜索中的文章
JA Church, JM Gregory, P Huybrechts, M Kuhn… - , in: JT Houghton, Y. Ding, DJ Griggs, M. Noguer, PJ …, 2001