作者
Can Wan, Zhao Xu, Pierre Pinson, Zhao Yang Dong, Kit Po Wong
发表日期
2014/5
期刊
IEEE Transactions on Power Systems
卷号
29
期号
3
页码范围
1166-1174
出版商
IEEE
简介
Accurate and reliable wind power forecasting is essential to power system operation. Given significant uncertainties involved in wind generation, probabilistic interval forecasting provides a unique solution to estimate and quantify the potential impacts and risks facing system operation with wind penetration beforehand. This paper proposes a novel hybrid intelligent algorithm approach to directly formulate optimal prediction intervals of wind power generation based on extreme learning machine and particle swarm optimization. Prediction intervals with associated confidence levels are generated through direct optimization of both the coverage probability and sharpness to ensure the quality. The proposed method does not involve the statistical inference or distribution assumption of forecasting errors needed in most existing methods. Case studies using real wind farm data from Australia have been conducted …
引用总数
20142015201620172018201920202021202220232024623343341424347432214
学术搜索中的文章
C Wan, Z Xu, P Pinson, ZY Dong, KP Wong - IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 2013