作者
Abba B Gumel, Enahoro A Iboi, Calistus N Ngonghala, Elamin H Elbasha
发表日期
2021/1/1
期刊
Infectious Disease Modelling
卷号
6
页码范围
148-168
出版商
Elsevier
简介
The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic that emerged from Wuhan city in December 2019 overwhelmed health systems and paralyzed economies around the world. It became the most important public health challenge facing mankind since the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. Various theoretical and empirical approaches have been designed and used to gain insight into the transmission dynamics and control of the pandemic. This study presents a primer for formulating, analysing and simulating mathematical models for understanding the dynamics of COVID-19. Specifically, we introduce simple compartmental, Kermack-McKendrick-type epidemic models with homogeneously- and heterogeneously-mixed populations, an endemic model for assessing the potential population-level impact of a hypothetical COVID-19 vaccine. We illustrate how some basic non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 can …
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