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Background: We describe transition probabilities for incident human papillomavirus (HPV) 16/18/31/33/35/45/52/58/59 infections and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 1 lesions.

Methods: Women ages 16 to 23 years underwent cytology and cervical swab PCR testing for HPV at approximately 6-month intervals for up to 4 years in the placebo arm of an HPV vaccine trial. The cumulative proportion of incident HPV infections with diagnosed CIN, clearing (infection undetectable), or persisting without CIN, were estimated.

Results: Most incident infections cleared, without detection of CIN, ranging at 36 months from 66.9% for HPV31 to 91.1% for HPV59. There was little variation in the 36-month proportion of incident HPV16, 18, and 31 infections followed by a CIN1 lesion positive for the relevant HPV type (range 16.7%–18.6%), with lower risks for HPV59 (6.4%) and HPV33 (2.9 …