作者
Christopher Troeger, Mohammad Forouzanfar, Puja C Rao, Ibrahim Khalil, Alexandria Brown, Robert C Reiner, Nancy Fullman, Robert L Thompson, Amanuel Abajobir, Muktar Ahmed, Mulubirhan Assefa Alemayohu, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Azmeraw T Amare, Carl Abelardo Antonio, Hamid Asayesh, Euripide Avokpaho, Ashish Awasthi, Umar Bacha, Aleksandra Barac, Balem Demtsu Betsue, Addisu Shunu Beyene, Dube Jara Boneya, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Manisha Dubey, Babak Eshrati, Joseph RA Fitchett, Tsegaye Tewelde Gebrehiwot, Gessessew Buggsa Hailu, Masako Horino, Peter J Hotez, Tariku Jibat, Jost B Jonas, Amir Kasaeian, Niranjan Kissoon, Karen Kotloff, Ai Koyanagi, G Anil Kumar, Rajesh Kumar Rai, Aparna Lal, Hassan Magdy Abd El Razek, Mubarek Abera Mengistie, Christine Moe, George Patton, James A Platts-Mills, Mostafa Qorbani, Usha Ram, Hirbo Shore Roba, Juan Sanabria, Benn Sartorius, Monika Sawhney, Mika Shigematsu, Chandrashekhar Sreeramareddy, Soumya Swaminathan, Bemnet Amare Tedla, Roman Topor-Madry Jagiellonian, Kingsley Ukwaja, Andrea Werdecker, Marc-Alain Widdowson, Naohiro Yonemoto, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Stephen S Lim, Mohsen Naghavi, Theo Vos, Simon I Hay, Christopher JL Murray, Ali H Mokdad
发表日期
2017/9/1
期刊
The Lancet infectious diseases
卷号
17
期号
9
页码范围
909-948
出版商
Elsevier
简介
Background
The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) provides an up-to-date analysis of the burden of diarrhoeal diseases. This study assesses cases, deaths, and aetiologies spanning the past 25 years and informs the changing picture of diarrhoeal disease worldwide.
Methods
We estimated diarrhoeal mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm), a modelling platform shared across most causes of death in the GBD 2015 study. We modelled diarrhoeal morbidity, including incidence and prevalence, using a meta-regression platform called DisMod-MR. We estimated aetiologies for diarrhoeal diseases using a counterfactual approach that incorporates the aetiology-specific risk of diarrhoeal disease and the prevalence of the aetiology in diarrhoea episodes. We used the Socio-demographic Index, a summary indicator …
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