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Based on data from 30 provinces in China, this paper builds a coordination degree model and a coupling coordination degree model (CCDM) for a carbon emission-urbanization system (CUS) that explores how to achieve low-carbon development during a rapid urbanization phase. Scenario analyses and case study were applied to illustrate the results, which show five basic conclusions. 1) Low-carbon development doesn’t require eliminating energy consumption completely during urbanization 2) The average level of urbanization is relatively low owing to the large disparities among provinces and the provinces’ economic development. Though the development of low-carbon in the 30 provinces is generally rapid, the gap between the highest provinces and the lowest provinces is relatively large because of their different socio-economic features. 3) Much more attention should be paid to CO₂ emissions per capita …