作者
Erin L McClymont, Heather L Ford, Sze Ling Ho, Julia C Tindall, Alan M Haywood, Montserrat Alonso-Garcia, Ian Bailey, Melissa A Berke, Kate Littler, Molly Patterson, Benjamin Petrick, Francien Peterse, A Christina Ravelo, Bjørg Risebrobakken, Stijn De Schepper, George EA Swann, Kaustubh Thirumalai, Jessica E Tierney, Carolien Van der Weijst, Sarah White
发表日期
2020/1/9
期刊
Climate of the Past Discussions
卷号
2020
页码范围
1-27
简介
A range of future climate scenarios are projected for high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, given uncertainties over future human actions as well as potential environmental and climatic feedbacks. The geological record offers an opportunity to understand climate system response to a range of forcings and feedbacks which operate over multiple temporal and spatial scales. Here, we examine a single interglacial during the late Pliocene (KM5c, ca. 3.205 ± 0.01 Ma) when atmospheric CO2 concentrations were higher than pre-industrial, but similar to today and to the lowest emission scenarios for this century. As orbital forcing and continental configurations were almost identical to today, we are able to focus on equilibrium climate system response to modern and near-future CO2. Using proxy data from 32 sites, we demonstrate that global mean sea-surface temperatures were warmer than pre-industrial, by ~ 2.3 ºC for the combined proxy data (foraminifera Mg/Ca and alkenones), or by ~ 3.2 ºC (alkenones only). Compared to the pre-industrial, reduced meridional gradients and enhanced warming in the North Atlantic are consistently reconstructed. There is broad agreement between data and models at the global scale, with regional differences reflecting ocean circulation and/or proxy signals. An uneven distribution of proxy data in time and space does, however, add uncertainty to our anomaly calculations. The reconstructed global mean sea-surface temperature anomaly for KM5c is warmer than all but three of the PlioMIP2 model outputs, and the reconstructed North Atlantic data tend to align with the warmest KM5c model values. Our …
引用总数
20202021202220232024820141414
学术搜索中的文章
EL McClymont, HL Ford, SL Ho, JC Tindall… - Climate of the Past Discussions, 2020