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Quantum algorithms hold the promise of solving certain computational problems dramatically faster than their classical counterparts. The latest generation of quantum processors with ~50 qubits are expected to be at the brink of outperforming classical computers. However, due to the lack of fault tolerance, the qubits can be operated for only a few time steps, making the quantum circuits shallow in depth. Variational quantum algorithms are leading candidates in the effort to find shallow-depth quantum algorithms that outperform classical computers. Here we consider the task of computing the mean values of multi-qubit observables, which is a cornerstone of variational quantum algorithms for optimization, machine learning and the simulation of quantum many-body systems. We develop sub-exponential time classical algorithms for solving the quantum mean value problem for general classes of quantum observables …