作者
Maryse Labriet, Amit Kanudia, Richard Loulou
发表日期
2012/12/1
期刊
Energy Economics
卷号
34
页码范围
S366-S377
出版商
North-Holland
简介
This paper explores the impacts of long-term technology and climate uncertainties on the optimal evolution of the World energy system. Stochastic programming with the TIAM-World model is used for a parametric analysis of hedging strategies, varying the probabilities associated to each of two contrasted technology outlooks. The parametric analysis constitutes an original supplement to the computation of hedging strategies by identifying technologies that are robust under a broad range of probabilities of the two technology outlooks. Natural gas appears to be one of the most appealing robust options in an uncertain technological context, especially in China, given its relatively low emissions and the low capital cost of associated technologies. Natural gas and some other options are in fact considered as “super-hedging” actions, penetrating more in the hedging solution than in any of the deterministic scenarios …
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