作者
Sara Conti, Pietro Ferrara, Giampiero Mazzaglia, Marco I D'Orso, Roberta Ciampichini, Carla Fornari, Fabiana Madotto, Michele Magoni, Giuseppe Sampietro, Andrea Silenzi, Claudio V Sileo, Alberto Zucchi, Giancarlo Cesana, Lamberto Manzoli, Lorenzo G Mantovani
发表日期
2020/7/1
期刊
ERJ open research
卷号
6
期号
3
出版商
European Respiratory Society
简介
Background
The real impact of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) on overall mortality remains uncertain as surveillance reports have attributed a limited number of deaths to novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) during the outbreak. The aim of this study was to assess the excess mortality during the COVID-19 outbreak in highly impacted areas of northern Italy.
Methods
We analysed data on deaths that occurred in the first 4 months of 2020 provided by the health protection agencies (HPAs) of Bergamo and Brescia (Lombardy), building a time-series of daily number of deaths and predicting the daily standardised mortality ratio (SMR) and cumulative number of excess deaths through a Poisson generalised additive model of the observed counts in 2020, using 2019 data as a reference.
Results
We estimated that there were 5740 (95% credible set (CS) 5552–5936) excess deaths in …
学术搜索中的文章
S Conti, P Ferrara, G Mazzaglia, MI D'Orso… - ERJ open research, 2020