查看文章

It has been assumed that montane species will undergo upslope shifts in response to climate warming and their range sizes are therefore predicted to decrease. However, this view has been challenged because a recent study (Elsen & Tingley, ) indicated that land surface area increases with increasing altitude in some mountains. To test this prediction, we used one of the world's biodiversity hotspots as a study system to examine overall patterns of plant distribution shift in response to climate warming.

The Hengduan Mountains and adjacent regions.

Based on distribution data for 151 species at a resolution of 2.5 arc minutes, we employed ecological niche modelling to model their distributions under the climatic conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum, Current (2017), and 2050 separately. We examined the distributional shifts of these species, especially with respect to altitude and range …