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IMPLICATIONS OF AGEING were the same at each age today as they were in 1973, there would have been 40 per cent, or 100 000, more births in 1998. If death rates at each age were the same today as they were in 1971–76, there would have been 60 per cent, or 78 000, more deaths in 1998. These are remarkable changes within a short period of time and are the reasons ageing of the population has emerged as a policy issue. Indicative 100 year projections made in the Borrie Report projected that the ‘ultimate’proportion of the population1 who would be aged 65 years and over would be 9–15 per cent, this level being reached by 2030 (National Population Inquiry 1975, vol. 1, p. 294). In only two of the six indicative projections did the ‘ultimate’proportion aged 65 years and over exceed 12 per cent, a level that we have already passed. As indicated below (figures 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3), indicative projections carried out today have the ‘ultimate’percentage aged 65 years and over as at least 24 per cent. Almost certainly it will be higher.

The main projections made for the Borrie report were 30 year projections. In this paper, we consider 100 years into the future. If our interest is the size of the population and its age structure, it is important to make projections over a period that is sufficiently long to observe the full consequences of the assumptions that are being made about demographic futures.