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Background: The incidence of papillary thyroid cancer has been reported to be increasing during the past three decades, with a 65–126% increase between 1975 and 2004. The reason for the increase is currently unknown. This study examined the incidence pattern of papillary thyroid cancer in the United States, and evaluated the components of birth cohort (defined based on year of birth), time period, and age as determinants of the observed time trend of the disease.

Methods: Using the data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program for 1973–2004, we conducted both univariate analysis and age–period–cohort modeling to evaluate birth cohort patterns and evaluate age, period, and cohort effects on incidence trends over time.

Results: The increasing incidence showed a clear birth cohort pattern for both men and women. The results from age–period–cohort …