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Understanding how an animal's ability to learn relates to neural activity or is altered by lesions, different attentional states, pharmacological interventions, or genetic manipulations are central questions in neuroscience. Although learning is a dynamic process, current analyses do not use dynamic estimation methods, require many trials across many animals to establish the occurrence of learning, and provide no consensus as how best to identify when learning has occurred. We develop a state-space model paradigm to characterize learning as the probability of a correct response as a function of trial number (learning curve). We compute the learning curve and its confidence intervals using a state-space smoothing algorithm and define the learning trial as the first trial on which there is reasonable certainty (>0.95) that a subject performs better than chance for the balance of the experiment. For a range of simulated …