作者
Bin Zhou, Yuan Lu, Kaveh Hajifathalian, James Bentham, Mariachiara Di Cesare, Goodarz Danaei, Honor Bixby, Melanie J Cowan, Mohammed K Ali, Cristina Taddei, Wei-Cheng Lo, Barbara Reis-Santos, Gretchen A Stevens, Leanne M Riley, J Jaime Miranda, Peter Bjerregaard, Juan A Rivera, Heba M Fouad, Guansheng Ma, JC Mbanya, Stephen T McGarvey, Viswanathan Mohan, Altan Onat, Aida Pilav, Ambady Ramachandran, H Ben Romdhane, Christopher J Paciorek, James E Bennett, Majid Ezzati, Ziad A Abdeen, K Abdul Kadir, Niveen M Abu-Rmeileh, Benjamin Acosta-Cazares, Robert Adams, Wichai Aekplakorn, Carlos A Aguilar-Salinas, Charles Agyemang, Alireza Ahmadvand, Amani Rashed Al-Othman, Ala' Alkerwi, Philippe Amouyel, Antoinette Amuzu, Lars Bo Andersen, Sigmund A Anderssen, Ranjit Mohan Anjana, Hajer Aounallah-Skhiri, Tahir Aris, Nimmathota Arlappa, Dominique Arveiler, Felix K Assah, Mária Avdicová, Fereidoun Azizi, Nagalla Balakrishna, Piotr Bandosz, Carlo M Barbagallo, Alberto Barceló, Anwar M Batieha, Louise A Baur, Mikhail Benet, Antonio Bernabe-Ortiz, Sumit Bharadwaj, Santosh K Bhargava, Yufang Bi, Espen Bjertness, Marius B Bjertness, Cecilia Björkelund, Anneke Blokstra, Simona Bo, Bernhard O Boehm, Carlos P Boissonnet, Pascal Bovet, Imperia Brajkovich, Juergen Breckenkamp, Hermann Brenner, Lizzy M Brewster, Garry R Brian, Graziella Bruno, Anna Bugge, A Cabrera de León, Günay Can, AP Cândido, Vincenzo Capuano, Axel C Carlsson, Maria J Carvalho, Felipe F Casanueva, Juan Pablo Casas, Carmelo A Caserta, Katia Castetbon, Snehalatha Chamukuttan, Nishi Chaturvedi, Chien-Jen Chen, Fangfang Chen, Shuohua Chen, Ching-Yu Cheng, Angela Chetrit, Shu-Ti Chiou, Yumi Cho, Jerzy Chudek, Renata Cifkova, Frank Claessens, Hans Concin, Cyrus Cooper, Rachel Cooper, Simona Costanzo, Dominique Cottel, Chris Cowell, Ana B Crujeiras, Graziella D'Arrigo, Jean Dallongeville, Rachel Dankner, Luc Dauchet, Giovanni De Gaetano, Stefaan De Henauw, Mohan Deepa, Abbas Dehghan, Valerie Deschamps, Klodian Dhana, Augusto F Di Castelnuovo, Shirin Djalalinia, Kouamelan Doua, Wojciech Drygas, Yong Du, Vilnis Dzerve, Eruke E Egbagbe, Robert Eggertsen, Jalila El Ati, Roberto Elosua, Rajiv T Erasmus, Cihangir Erem, Gul Ergor, Louise Eriksen, Jorge Escobedo-De La Peña, Caroline H Fall, Farshad Farzadfar, Francisco J Felix-Redondo, Trevor S Ferguson, Daniel Fernández-Bergés, Marika Ferrari, Catterina Ferreccio, EJ Feskens, Joseph D Finn, Bernhard Föger, Leng Huat Foo, Ann Sofie Forslund, Damian K Francis, C Franco Mdo, Oscar H Franco, Guillermo Frontera, Takuro Furusawa, Zbigniew Gaciong
发表日期
2016/4/9
期刊
The lancet
卷号
387
期号
10027
页码范围
1513-1530
出版商
Elsevier
简介
Background
One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes.
Methods
We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence—defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7·0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs—in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if …
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