作者
Rupert Stuart-Smith, Gerard Roe, Sihan Li, Myles Allen
发表日期
2023/4/5
期刊
Journal of South American Earth Sciences
简介
In our previous study,‘Increased outburst flood hazard from Lake Palcacocha due to human-induced glacier retreat’(Stuart-Smith et al., 2021; henceforth S21), we found that it is virtually certain (> 99% probability) that the observed retreat of the Palcaraju glacier in Peru’s Cordillera Blanca cannot be explained by natural climate variability. Lüning et al.(2022; henceforth L22) claim that the numerical models used in Stuart-Smith et al.(2021) do not replicate the Andean temperature and glacier history of the Common Era, such that we provide an unsuccessful ‘hindcast’of historical climatological and glacier-length changes that indicates limited glacier-length fluctuations in pre-industrial times, thus underestimating the potential contribution of natural variability to observed changes. It is our view that the claims made in L22 are based on altered data in one case, and, in others, on a selective and misleading characterisation of the existing literature of the glacial history of the region. The available glacial history of the region is, in fact, firmly in line with the findings of S21.
学术搜索中的文章
R Stuart-Smith, G Roe, S Li, M Allen - Available at SSRN 4410943, 2023