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Current guidelines for intravenous vancomycin identify drug exposure (as indicated by the AUC) as the best pharmacokinetic (PK) indicator of therapeutic outcome.

To assess the accuracy of two Bayesian forecasting programs in estimating vancomycin AUC_0–∞ in adults with limited blood concentration sampling.

The application of seven vancomycin population PK models in two Bayesian forecasting programs was examined in non-obese adults (n = 22) with stable renal function. Patients were intensively sampled following a single (1000 mg or 15 mg/kg) dose. For each patient, AUC was calculated by fitting all vancomycin concentrations to a two-compartment model (defined as AUC_TRUE). AUC_TRUE was then compared with the Bayesian-estimated AUC_0–∞ values using a single vancomycin concentration sampled …