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Background: During the past decade, an increasing number of prospective studies have focused on the association between vitamin D and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the evidence on the relation between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and the risk of overt CVD is inconclusive.

Objective: We performed a dose-response meta-analysis to summarize and prospectively quantify the RR of low serum 25(OH)D concentration and total CVD (events and mortality).

Design: We identified relevant studies by searching PubMed and EMBASE up to December 2015 and by hand-searching reference lists. Prospective studies based on the general population and reported RRs and 95% CIs were included. A random-effects model was used to calculate the pooled RRs. Nonlinear association was assessed by using restricted cubic spline analyses.

Results: A total of 34 publications with 180,667 participants …