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The economic and social costs of pipe bursts in water distribution networks (WDNs) are very significant. Water managers need reliable replacement plans for critical pipes, balancing investment with expected benefits in a risk-based management scenario. Thus, a robust and feasible decision support tool for water system rehabilitation is required. This kind of tool should incorporate (i) a model to forecast pipe failures and (ii) a strategy to solve a multi-objective optimisation problem trading investment vs. benefits. The former requires the collection of company asset data and the statistical modelling of pipe bursts. In this article, the burst modelling is performed by the evolutionary polynomial regression technique, providing a symbolic model for predicting pipe bursts. The benefits of burst reduction achieved by mains rehabilitation are evaluated by a multi-objective optimisation model over a short-term planning horizon …