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Accurately estimating the timing and mode of gene duplications along the evolutionary history of species can provide invaluable information about underlying mechanisms by which the genomes of organisms evolved and the genes with novel functions arose. Mechanistic models have previously been introduced that allow for probabilistic inference of the evolutionary mechanism for duplicate gene retention based upon the average rate of loss over time of the duplicate. However, there is currently no probabilistic model embedded in a birth-death modeling framework that can take into account the effects of different evolutionary mechanisms of gene retention when analyzing gene family data.

In this study, we describe a generalized birth-death process for modeling the fates of gene duplication. Use of mechanistic models in a …