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Near elimination of cervical cancer in the United States is possible in coming decades, yet inequities will delay this achievement for some populations. We sought to explore the effects of human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination on disparities in cervical cancer incidence between high- and low-poverty U.S. counties.

We calibrated a dynamic simulation model of HPV infection to reflect average counties in the highest and lowest quartile of poverty (percent of population below federal poverty level), incorporating data on HPV prevalence, cervical cancer screening, and HPV vaccination. We projected cervical cancer incidence through 2070, estimated absolute and relative disparities in incident cervical cancer for high- versus low-poverty counties, and compared incidence with the near-elimination target (4 cases/100,000 women annually …