作者
Kathleen O'Reilly, Rachel Lowe, John Edmunds, Philippe Mayaud, Adam Kucharski, Rosalind M Eggo, Sebastian Funk, Deepit Bhatia, Kamran Khan, Moritz Kramer, Annelies Wilder-Smith, Laura Rodrigues, Patricia Brasil, Eduardo Massad, Thomas Jaenisch, Simon Cauchemez, Oliver Brady, Laith Yakob
发表日期
2018
期刊
BMC Medicine
卷号
16
页码范围
180
简介
Background
Zika virus (ZIKV) emerged in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region in 2013, with serious implications for population health in the region. In 2016, the World Health Organization declared the ZIKV outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern following a cluster of associated neurological disorders and neonatal malformations. In 2017, Zika cases declined, but future incidence in LAC remains uncertain due to gaps in our understanding, considerable variation in surveillance and the lack of a comprehensive collation of data from affected countries.
Methods
Our analysis combines information on confirmed and suspected Zika cases across LAC countries and a spatio-temporal dynamic transmission model for ZIKV infection to determine key transmission parameters and projected incidence in 90 major cities within 35 …
学术搜索中的文章
KM O'Reilly, R Lowe, WJ Edmunds, P Mayaud… - BMC medicine, 2018