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Background. Falls are common in community-dwelling elderly persons and are a frequent source of morbidity. Simple indices to prospectively stratify people into categories at different fall-risk would be useful to health care practitioners. Our goal was to develop a fall-risk index that discriminated between people at high and low risk of falling.

Methods . We evaluated the risk of falling over a one-year period in 557 elderly persons (mean age 81.6) living in a retirement community. On the baseline interview, we asked subjects if they had fallen in the previous year and evaluated risk factors in six additional conceptual categories. On the follow-up interview one year later, we again asked subjects if they had fallen in the prior year. We evaluated risk factors in the different conceptual categories and used logistic regression to determine the independent predictors of …