作者
Ryan Wiser, Karen Jenni, Joachim Seel, Erin Baker, Maureen Hand, Eric Lantz, Aaron Smith
发表日期
2016/9/12
期刊
Nature Energy
卷号
1
期号
10
页码范围
1-8
出版商
Nature Publishing Group
简介
Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends—in part—on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. Here, we summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world’s foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Under the median scenario, experts anticipate 24–30% reductions by 2030 and 35–41% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. Insights gained through expert elicitation complement …
引用总数
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学术搜索中的文章
R Wiser, K Jenni, J Seel, E Baker, M Hand, E Lantz… - Nature Energy, 2016