作者
Haiyan Hou, Bing-Bing Zhou, Fengsong Pei, Guohua Hu, Zhongbo Su, Yijian Zeng, Han Zhang, Yukun Gao, Meng Luo, Li Xia*
发表日期
2022/9
期刊
Earth's Future
卷号
10
页码范围
e2021EF002628
出版商
https://doi.org/10.1029/2021EF002628
简介
Anthropogenic land use/land cover (LULC) change alters terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP), the largest land‐atmosphere carbon exchanges. Identifying the impacts of LULC changes on future terrestrial GPP has been challenging due to the scarcity of standardized future LULC for ecosystem models. Here, we present eight scenario‐based projections of global spatially explicit LULC at 1‐km resolution over the period 2015–2100 with a Future Land Use Simulation model—consistent with the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and Representative Concentration Pathways. Twenty computational experiments with different LULC patterns, climate forcing, and CO2 concentrations were conducted to quantify their contributions to future GPP dynamics. Results show that the global terrestrial GPP would decline in the 21st century in most LULC scenarios due to urbanization, agricultural expansion, and …
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