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Sub-Saharan Africa has a high rate of HIV infection, most of which is attributable to heterosexual transmission. Few attempts have been made to assess the extent of HIV transmission within marriages, and HIV-prevention efforts remain focused on abstinence and non-marital sex. We aimed to estimate the proportion of heterosexual transmission of HIV which occurs within married or cohabiting couples in urban Zambia and Rwanda each year.

We used population-based data from Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) on heterosexual behaviour in Zambia in 2001–02 and in Rwanda in 2005. We also used data on the HIV serostatus of married or cohabiting couples and non-cohabiting couples that was collected through a voluntary counselling and testing service for urban couples in Lusaka, in Zambia, and Kigali, in Rwanda. We estimated the probability that an individual would acquire an …