作者
A Araya, G Hoogenboom, E Luedeling, Kiros M Hadgu, Isaya Kisekka, Lucieta G Martorano
发表日期
2015/12/15
期刊
Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
卷号
214
页码范围
252-265
出版商
Elsevier
简介
Maize yield productivity in Ethiopia has been below the genetic potential—constrained, among other factors, by frequent moisture stress due to local weather variability. Changes in climate may exacerbate these limitations to productivity, but current research on projecting responses of maize yields to climate change in Ethiopia is inadequate. The research objectives of this project were to (1) calibrate and evaluate the performance of the APSIM-maize and DSSAT CSM-CERES-Maize models, and (2) assess the impact of climate change on future maize yield. The climate periods considered were near future (2010–2039), middle (2040–2069) and end of the 21st century (2070–2099). Climate simulations were conducted using 20 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Both crop models reasonably reproduced observations for time to …
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