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Background: Stress can have adverse effects on health and well-being. Informed by laboratory findings that heart rate variability (HRV) decreases in response to an induced stress response, recent efforts to monitor perceived stress in the wild have focused on HRV measured using wearable devices. However, it is not clear that the well-established association between perceived stress and HRV replicates in naturalistic settings without explicit stress inductions and research-grade sensors.

Objective: This study aims to quantify the strength of the associations between HRV and perceived daily stress using wearable devices in real-world settings.

Methods: In the main study, 657 participants wore a fitness tracker and completed 14,695 ecological momentary assessments (EMAs) assessing perceived stress, anxiety, positive affect, and negative affect across 8 weeks. In the follow-up study, approximately a year later, 49.8%(327/657) of the same participants wore the same fitness tracker and completed 1373 EMAs assessing perceived stress at the most stressful time of the day over a 1-week period. We used mixed-effects generalized linear models to predict EMA responses from HRV features calculated over varying time windows from 5 minutes to 24 hours.

Results: Across all time windows, the models explained an average of 1%(SD 0.5%; marginal R 2) of the variance. Models using HRV features computed from an 8 AM to 6 PM time window (namely work hours) outperformed other time windows using HRV features calculated closer to the survey response time but still explained a small amount (2.2%) of the variance. HRV features that were …