作者
LBL Santos, MC Costa, Suani Tavares Rubim de Pinho, Roberto Fernandes Silva Andrade, Florisneide Rodrigues Barreto, MG Teixeira, Mauricio Lima Barreto
发表日期
2009/7
期刊
Physical Review E—Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics
卷号
80
期号
1
页码范围
016102
出版商
American Physical Society
简介
A periodically forced two-dimensional cellular automata model is used to reproduce and analyze the complex spatiotemporal patterns observed in the transmission of vector infectious diseases. The system, which comprises three population levels, is introduced to describe complex features of the dynamics of the vector-transmitted dengue epidemics, known to be very sensitive to seasonal variables. The three coupled levels represent the human, the adult, and immature vector populations. The dynamics includes external seasonality forcing, human and mosquito mobility, and vector control effects. The model parameters, even if bounded to well-defined intervals obtained from reported data, can be selected to reproduce specific epidemic outbursts. In the current study, explicit results are obtained by comparison with actual data retrieved from the time series of dengue epidemics in two cities in Brazil. The results …
引用总数
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LBL Santos, MC Costa, STR Pinho, RFS Andrade… - Physical Review E—Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft …, 2009