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This paper presents a simulation model for evaluating the possible effects of a screening and vaccination campaign against Human Papillomavirus [HPV] in Kenya.

A System Dynamics model was developed using the iThink™ computer simulation package. The model was based on data extracted from epidemiological, demographic and published research and where data was not available, expert opinion was sought. The deterministic model stratified the population by vaccination status, screening status and HPV infection status. The model was simulated to estimate outputs for the next 50 years from 2011. Cost Utility indicators of Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) and cost per averted DALY were used for economic evaluation.

The model predicted that catch up vaccination had the …